Bio-hacking, the end of Jolt, and the future of retail
A few years ago I wrote a short essay about “Flow” and how the ideas in that book apply to a world where mobile computing enhances every moment of our lives. I never published it or anything, just showed it to a few friends. However, I did mention those ideas in my first post this year where I said that photo-sharing apps (and other “time-wasters”) are giving people a false sense of productivity and hence happiness.
My point is that mobile computing is going to make us happier, assuming Mihaly’s book is true. We can maximize the output of our day, improving our knowledge about things that interest us, and also ourselves. Apps that allow us to track (or check-in) to routines or habits -- like Lift, backed by Evan Williams -- are becoming very common and fairly popular. Even smarter tools like the products Nike has been pumping out for iOS users, or some of the new health care applications that can track all sorts of data about your body, are getting enough traction today that one can easily envision them becoming part of mainstream medicine within a few years.
Bio-Hacking
Along with all this new technology, an avalanche of information about diet and health has been hitting the bookstores and blogs for the past decade. And it’s only getting better/worse(?). One of my favorite sites, the bulletproof executive, comes right out and says they update the site every few months at new breakthroughs occur (and are hopefully confirmed). This trend have a new name, that’s “bio-hacking” or the idea of hacking our own bodies to improve productivity at home, at work, in the bedroom, on the field, etc.
Are the days of Jolt-powered nerds at an end? It looks like it, sort-of. While there will always be the more cosmopolitan nerd who craves espresso romano, wine, and gourmet cheese -- yours truly ;-) -- the impact of a new generation of super-nerds who are hacking software AND their bodies could be something incredible. Most people will go through a super bio-hacking phase, and return to a better (though not totally ideal) lifestyle. However, the interest in itself means we’ll see more and more software integrating with our lifestyle goals, helping us overcome craving for example, or somehow infusing us with positive reinforcement when embarking on the challenging endeavor to break.. um create new habits.
How this will impact marketing
Data will become more accurate and more specific, of course. Imagine we have these really awesome applications which “speak” to machines at retail shops, and instead of promoting whatever junk-food is the craze… it knows we are on diet (it should even know what our streak is) and it recommends we purchase items that support that diet. Great right!? Furthermore, with the right technology installed at the store your software could be alert when you veer too close to say… the ice-cream, sending some kind of notification that “hey, you should get some apples” or “if you are craving something cold and sweet, why not a fruit popsicle!” You get the idea.
This could transform the image of many retailers, and could really improve the happiness of millions.
Android Gaming
Mobile gaming continues to be dominated by iOS. Games Industry reported that iOS games earned 3.5 times the revenue of Android games this past quarter. However, signs that Android is making a quiet but steady rise are everywhere, from rumors of an Android Game Center to a slew of new Android-powered game devices.
Money Matters
While iOS continues to show healthy growth of its App Store revenues in 56 countries worldwide, Google Play hasn’t exactly languished in the shadows. TNW recently reported that Google Play revenues grew 90% so far in 2013. And in fact, some estimates show Google’s revenue growth is 5 times greater than Apple’s, with Corea and Japan driving growth for the platform -- 9 of 10 of the most profitable “app revenue generators” including NHN, NHN Japan, and Kakao are from Corea or Japan.
Still, total revenues are dwarfed by the App Store and will probably continue to be for the next couple of years. A representative from Daum, one of Korea’s dot-com champs, says they don’t expect Google Play revenues to overtake App Store revenues until “sometime in 2016.” This lack of consumption by Android users means that game developers focus on iOS first, developing for Android -- especially considering there are an estimated 3997 distinct devices with varying specs -- is just not worth the hassle early on.
Paradigm Shift?
Ouya has arrived, or at least it’s on the way. The much publicized Android-based gaming console is scheduled to hit retailers this June. Most people know about Ouya because of its remarkable success via Kickstarter, where they raised over $8.5M from around 60,000 backers. So what does Ouya mean for Android gaming?
Hard to say, but the device is clearly targeting indie game developers in addition to high-profile titles (Final Fantasy). Ouya is making every game into a freemium product, requiring they be free to try. Some games will offer a demo, while others will surely go the in-app purchase route -- a brilliant, pay-what-you-want model. The hope for indie developers is that when they can present their work side-by-side with brand name games on a TV, they will compete better. If this holds true, we could see Android game revenues increase substantially.
There Is Another...
Ouya is not the only Android gaming system, nor are these gaming systems the only option.
GameStick is competing with Ouya to win the new, albeit uncertain, market beginning this June unless there are further delays. Gamestick also raised a good deal of money on Kickstarter, and both consoles are boasting 600 developers support their platform. It isn’t clear yet how they will differentiate themselves other than the hardware. Will it be that they negotiate exclusive games like the big boys do? Building their brand around Marios and Yoshis? Looks like it.
NVidia is also getting in the mix with the much anticipated SHIELD device. While not a console, it is a serious addition to the Android gaming world built around the incredible capabilities of NVidia's new Tegra chip. The mobile gaming device is targeting hardcore gamers who crave high-definition. It is perhaps unfair to say that it will compete with Ouya or GameStick; rather, the SHIELD will take Android up against the like of the Play Station Vita. This is a huge win for Android if it goes well, and NVidia will do all it can to see that happen.
NVidia has already launched a distribution site for Tegra games (games built with the Tegra chip in mind) called the Tegra Zone. Important to note, the Tegra Zone is not exclusively for NVidia’s SHIELD, for any device with their super chip installed.
And indeed... Ouya boasts a Tegra 3.
A New Galaxy
As convergence to mobile devices marches briskly forward, smartphones themselves will continue to play a central role in gaming. After-all you can already connect your device to a TV, as well as a controller -- like this from Green Throttle -- leaving some to wonder what the value is in an Android console. In fact, Ouya has some people saying the console is already outdated though it hasn’t even launched. It does boast a Tegra 3 graphics processor, 1 GB of Ram and 1.7 Ghz quad-core ARM CPU. However, that doesn't compare well with many of the highend Android devices for sale.
For example, the new Samsung Galaxy S4 sports 2 GB of Ram and 1.9 Ghz Qualcomm Snapdragon processor... or Samsung’s own processor, which is apparently even faster. And Samsung isn’t the only one.
While Ouya is a great idea, the possibility that it will languish as a niche product seems rather high. However, the remarkable activity around Android gaming so far this year is any indication then Google Play could close the gap with Apple a little sooner than expected.
Wasting Time, Sharing Photos, & Being Happy
People love photo-sharing applications because they provide a false sense of productivity. In reality, they are basically Time-waster applications.
What are time wasters
What is a Time-waster application?
I’d like to attribute this term to Chris Dixon, though I’m not sure if he coined it or not. In the post “Four types of mobile apps” he categorizes mobile applications in four broad strokes:
>Time-wasters
>Core Utilities
>Episodic Utilities
>Notification Driven
Each has a reasonable description, and I encourage you to read the post. I’d like to focus on Time-wasters, which according to Chris Dixon are apps you use while waiting in line -- you could include a lazy Sunday afternoon, or before you go to bed, etc. Often we fill those times with activities we hope are productive like reading a book or magazine, writing in a journal, etc. However, often we fill those times by “wasting” it... watching TV, playing games, using facebook or other social networks, and surfing the web, or using photo-sharing sites like Instagram, WeHeartIt, FFFFound, Tumblr, 500px, Pinterest, etc.
Few people would argue that browsing the web isn’t a go-to time-waster for anyone born circa... well, anyone. Likewise, few would argue that social-networking is not, at least sometimes, also a go-to method for time-killing. Still, other than games, photo-sharing services arguably been the biggest drivers of time-wasting growth in recent years.
Growth of photo-sharing
Writing about the growth of photo-sharing is passe, so bear with me. I’d like to frame it in a slightly different context.
Most readers probably already know the growth of photo sharing has been incredible in 2012. Just how incredible this growth has been can really be exemplified by 3 services: Instagram, Pinterest, and Tumblr. Particularly in the case of Pinterest, the incredibly rapid growth is pretty much common-knowledge. Tumblr’s bright future is less commonly known (only 6% of internet users on on it), unless you are a teen. According to Business Insider, Tumblr is more popular than Facebook among teens... at least for now.
But why!?
So why are these services so popular? Please allow me to digress.
One of the best books ever written about human behavior is, in my humble opinion (not to mention the opinon of The New York Times), “Flow” by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi... or just, “Mihaly.” At the risk of oversimplifying Mihaly’s seminal work, the basic premise is that we find more happiness by creating meaningful experiences, and the happiest people are those who make each moment meaningful; meaningful experiences can be generated any time we are creating order out of disorder, or gaining knowledge. The flow-state exists when the sum of our meaningful experiences is appropriately matched to a circumstance where we can apply whatever value, knowledge, those particular experiences have provided us. In other words, we are up to a challenge... it is neither too easy, nor too hard.
The most interesting part of this theory, however, is not the definition of the “flow state.” Rather, it’s how people find intrinsic happiness by developing some expertise. And that intrinsic happiness is in the process of developing that skill, as much as in the application of the skill.
Taking this to another level, perhaps more abstract, we could infer that our level of happiness would increase any time we feel we have made a moment valuable. This feeling could exist anytime we are gaining knowledge, or making order out of disorder (structured information equals knowledge, yadda yadda).
So web search... makes me happy. In truth it is often a time-wasting activity, but we can rationalize that activity to be more valuable than doing nothing at all. Mobility has added to our ability to create meaning even more.
However, we are also creatures of evolution, and evolution says we are lazy.
Photo-sharing Makes People Happier
Researching takes time, so making meaning through research in the pre-Google days (dare I say pre-internet) was a challenge that made few people happy. However, as Google endeavoured to make information useful, browsing the web became a grand way to satisfy our need for meaning. Still, it wasn’t something anyone would do.
Enter photo-sharing.
Even babies like it... it is the next level of simplicity in terms of finding meaning (if not, at times, false meaning) in our lives from moment to moment. When people create enormous collections on Pinterest it provides a sense of completion and satisfaction. For many it may indeed be an incredibly useful tool, but for most it is an enabler. Photo-sharing enables more people to create meaningful experience every moment. It’s easy, it’s fast, it’s intuitive, and, of course.... since pictures say a thousand words, it gives us a sense that we are conveying (or consuming) huge amounts of information relatively effortlessly.
Assuming that Mihaly is correct, and the frequency with which we are generating meaningful experiences relates to our happiness, photo-sharing has made happiness that much more plentiful for humanity. Thanks Ben.
