How to Lose 30lbs in 3 Months: An Intro to Quantified Self

Disclaimer: I am not a nutritionist, health advisor, doctor or any other type of certified anything in medicine. Any opinions are entirely my own, if you die or get injured after reading this it's your fault.


My Favorite Picture for Summer 2017

My Body Weight: From 205 to 175 in 3 months

I've spent the past 3 years working as a Project Manager for Global Strategic Initiatives. All the travel, with the lavish lunches, dinners, and early morning breakfast buffets, took a toll on my health. I gained a lot of weight, and although I never entirely stopped exercising my routine suffered.

A few months ago I decided to make some changes. For years I had heard of Quantified Self (QS) and had even dabbled in apps to check my steps, how much I eat, etc. Now it was time to make a concerted effort to test how much of an impact QS can really have.

QS is a broad category that covers all sorts of sensors people can use to track quantitative data about different aspects of their body. There is an essential mantra though, and that is to "support new discoveries about ourselves and our communities that are grounded in accurate observation...." There is a lot going on here... so I decided to just focus on two things: Exercise and Diet. These are the quintessential variables of weight loss, and I wanted to know how much more effective I would be at losing weight by keeping track of them every day.


Getting Started

Since at least the 1950s people have said that weight-loss is about Reducing Caloric Intake while Increasing Caloric Burn. In other words, "eat less, exercise more." Just getting started I didn't want to burden myself with too much information, so I decided to just worry about these two stats.

I had used LoseIt in the past with some success, and I really like the app. So I decided to try using it every day to track how much I eat and burn. It's really easy to do:

1. Download the app and signup
2. Set a weight loss goal: target weight and finish date
3. LoseIt will calculate how many aggregate calories are available to you every day
4. Track everything: food, and exercise
5. BE HONEST: if you go over because of a dinner party, make it count and don't hide it

LoseIt App

LoseIt includes a massive database of foods including groceries and meal items from international restaurants, has a Barcode Scanner for quickly adding new foods, and will analyse images as well.

Next, I am a huge fan of Strava. While LoseIt has an excellent database of exercises and estimates for calories burned for each, Strava is the best tool for sharing your epic rides, runs, or walks. It's also a good tool to give you confidence in how you are making inputs to the LoseIt app so you can be sure you are tracking the right amount of calories burned.


Being Honest

Be really honest about how much you consume in terms of calories. It will only take a couple nights-out with the boys to realize that alcohol and bar foods are your enemy #1. Likewise, it will only take a couple of breakfast scones and vanilla lattes to realize that sugar-filled pastries and beverages are your enemy #2.

If you are serious about weight-loss, you will quickly overcome these vices. Tracking them will help you acknowledge the problem and deal with it.


Hitting My Stride

The first thing you realise is that exercise will make you hungry, and if you want to combat hunger-pangs you need to find food that is low-calorie and filling. Sweet Potatoes are the champions, but also Light Yogurt, or Soy Milk, and Almonds (not too many) can be great. Sweet Potatoes have a lot of complex carbs so they take a while to digest. Yogurt, Soy Milk, and Almonds have protein and fats that are great for your body.

Fat is fuel, so the goal was to get my body to eat as much of my stored fats as possible. I really didn't know how to do that, but I figured giving my body food that was easy to convert to energy would divert energy away from digestion toward fat-burning.

Bring on the fruits and vegetables that give you lots of energy but are easy to digest.


Putting it in High Gear

After a month I started to see results. I was noticeably thinner and felt better.  Feeling better was the most crucial thing. Many of us start to feel pain in our body around our mid-thirties, and this launches us into a vicious cycle of exercising less (because it hurts). However, by eating healthy and exercising daily I started to feel up to more challenges and decided to set some new goals.

These could be anything, but I recommend doing something really awesome like Hiking Across Spain, or Ride a Century.

Since I had started to intensify my workouts with a new goal (I'm going to Spain!), I decided to get the most out of them by going 100% Vegan for at least a few weeks. Living in South Korea, only the most die-hard vegans survive, so I didn't expect to sustain a vegan diet forever. However, this got me cooking ultra lean super foods at home: lentils, broccoli, avocados, etc.

Although I only stayed vegan for a short while, I now prefer seafood and fish, or lean meats in really moderate quantities (around 100 grams). Also, having gone vegan for a few weeks has shown me how amazing that diet will make you feel. I highly recommend making an effort to eat a lot less of meats and dairy products.


Taking it in Stride

After a few months, I have lost almost 30lbs. I'm exercising almost every day, and have added a daily 3x3x30 routine: 3 sets of 30 pushups, squats, and planks. The weight continues to peel-off, though at a more tempered pace. I have allowed myself to reintroduce meat and dairy into my diet, but since I am tracking everything the amount of these foods is greatly reduced.

In short, I look really good, feel even better, eat all the things I love only in more moderate and measured amounts.


Conclusion... 

Getting serious about tracking has transformed me. I am a huge believer and have become interested in what other benefits there could be by discovering other areas for improvement. Starting out with the basics, getting a handle over those first is a great idea for anyone. You will see results, promise.

What can I track next? Well, for starters LoseIt has a pro version that allows me to track sleep and water intake. Next, I'm planning to add the new Apple Watch to my repertoire, and maybe Cat Eye computer to track my cadence while cycling.

Are Self-Published Authors Earning $1 Billion on Amazon?

Amazon began as an online bookstore. Books were Jeff Bezos answer to the questions “What obvious thing do you know that no one else knows?” He knew there was a longtail of demand for books, that there were people frustrated because either they couldn’t find the books they wanted at their local bookstores or they couldn’t find them quickly. He knew there was a longtail of supply for books, that there was potentially an infinite number of books to fulfill that demand. And he knew people would flock to his webstore if he could provide a solution to connect demand with supply better than anyone else.   

While the Everything Store is supposed to have been founded on the premise that the internet would make it easier for consumers to find “Everything” at a lower price, books were the perfect proxy for “Everything.” Books presented a clear problem for both mainstream and niche consumers which could be solved, presented a nearly endless longtail and an eternal shelf-life.

Today the longtail is growing in influence as the power-dynamics of publishing is shifting away from major publishers and into the hands of authors.

The Endless Longtail of Books

The Association of American Publishers (AAP) is “the largest U.S. trade association for the consumer, educational, professional and scholarly publishing industry.” They have for years been tasked with creating standards for publishing, keeping tabs on the book selling industry, and hosting events that bring the industry together to maintain a community of publishers, authors, and distributors. AAP represents publishers, and reports on their performance based on platform (print, or digital) and category monthly and annually. Last year they reported that eBook sales are in decline, and infact they were for publishers.

But the real story here was not that publishers represented by AAP are reporting a decline eBook sales; rather, how consumers are choosing to buy independently published eBooks. Fortune, in response to a NY Times article publicizing AAP’s sales statistics as a “plot twist” (that eBooks were in decline while print sales were improving), reported that according to independent industry analysts at Author Earnings the market for eBooks is relatively stagnant though long-term trends favor eBooks becoming dominant over time. What’s remarkable is not the struggle between digital and print, but rather that independent publishers… or self-published authors… now sell more eBooks than the Big 5 publishers who have traditionally dominated book sales.

The ascension of “indie publishers” indicates that a) consumer demand for niche books continues to be strong, b) the quality of indie published books has been or is being syndicated by the masses.

The Writing on the Wall

This shift in dynamics is going to accelerate as consumers earn more trust in authors selling to them directly. Authors already prefer to self-publish in-theory because they can earn substantially more. Selling directly through Amazon means pocketing 70% of the cover price. Selling through a publisher authors typically get 25% of their publisher’s net (for eBook sales). However, cutting out the middleman today still represents an opportunity cost to authors seeking shelf-space offline where 70% of book sales still happen, not to mention abandoning the prestige of making the NY Time Best Seller list.

Arguably many authors today will earn more by sticking to self-published eBooks, but making the NY Times Best Seller list as a self-published author is still unlikely as is getting a deal to produce a major motion picture based on your work. But the dynamics are changing and The Martian is timely example of this, having become both a best seller and a major motion picture. 

The Martian was a self-published serial novel that just got traction. Its popularity online caught the attention of Crown Publishing (a division of Penguin Random House) and the rest is history. Success stories like The Martian will certainly inspire more writers to self-publish directly to their audience rather than submit to the complex and onerous demands of the publishing industry.

Better for Consumers and Authors, and Publishers?

Consumers win in this new paradigm of publishing. It means more choice from an increasingly wide range of authors and genres, at a lower cost. Authors win because as they build trust with consumers the more willing those consumers are to pay a few bucks to download their eBook. In fact, authors are set to gain tremendously from this new dynamic. Based on my own back-of-the-envelope estimates self-published authors are approaching $1 billion in revenue on Amazon.

Statista estimates eBook Sales totalled $6.74 Billion in 2015, of which Amazon controls 71% (according to some estimates) giving them $4.79 Billion in eBook Sales. Averaging the percentage of sales per category reported by Author Earnings from January 2015 through January 2016, Indie Published and Uncategorised Single-Author Publishers represent 24% of sales or $1.14 Billion.

Assuming those authors pocket 70% of the cover price, self-published authors earned approximately $800 Million selling on Amazon in 2015.  

The question remains whether this will be good for publishers? Clearly it is a better model, allowing consumers to syndicate books first means a more democratic vetting process, less overhead, and higher chances a book will hit the best seller lists once it’s picked up. But that could be temporary, over time the publishers could simply become irrelevant.

Mining Space in 2030

Technologies like nano-bots which can enter your body to repair internal organs or fight disease have captured the imagination of the masses for since the 80s. Remember Inner Space? Mining, is less attractive… it’s downright dirty work. Most of us think of blood diamonds or tragic accidents in West Virginia, and fail to realize just how amazing the future of mining will be. And just how much it will impact our world.

Mining Space in 2030

While the idea of space tourism has been around for years, leisure rides on fancy spacecraft are not what’s driving innovation in space travel: resources are. There are at least two types of resources we know of that are abundant in space. First, the kind that makes deep space exploration possible (i.e. rocket fuel); and second, rare-earth materials.

Making rocket fuel in space is a critical part of deep space exploration, or even mining. The amount of energy it takes to leave Earth is more than the amount it takes to get to moon from Earth orbit. Being able to refuel from space (building in space, say on the moon, would be a next step) would significantly reduce the cost of space travel. 

Once we can produce rocket fuel in space then we won’t need to carry the fuel it takes to reach the Moon or Mars (or some mineral rich asteroids) with us on launch. Carrying less fuel, which is really heavy, would dramatically reduce the amount of fuel required to escape Earth’s gravity significantly reducing the cost of every launch. Planetary Resources, arguably the coolest space company out there (sorry SpaceX), has a great video explaining all of this:

Critics would argue that science and exploration are not the primary motivations for companies like Planetary Resources (nor their benefactors, among them Google). Rather, they claim they are motivated by profits alone. Perhaps, that's true (though I don't agree). Another abundant resource in space is platinum. Platinum and other rare metals found on Earth come from meteors, and we now have the ability to speculate asteroids to identify which ones are likely to contain them. It’s estimated that just one asteroid of moderate size could contain as much or more platinum than has ever been mined on Earth. Control of these resources could potentially mean a shift power from those who control terrestrial resources to those who control extraterrestrial resources.

That said, while it may be profitable to mine for platinum and other rare metals in space, the motivation for doing is not purely capitalistic. It’s an essential step forward in human civilization, and the technology required to mine space will lead to incredible innovations that benefit everyone.

Lunar Base Stations

The moon could become a critical base for long-term space operations, as well as a source of valuable resources. Turns out that while asteroids are full of platinum and water for rocket fuel, the moon is full of a unique form of helium called HE-3. In fact, this stuff is so valuable it makes sustainable lunar mining operations fueled by robotic space miners hauling in nearby asteroids sound reasonable. That’s because HE-3 is considered a key component of nuclear fusion, and while it is extremely rare on Earth --and extremely expensive at $75,000 per ounce-- it is abundant on the moon.

40 tonnes of HE-3 would power all of the United States for an entire year, without accounting for innovations between now and when it becomes available. The United States, China, and Russia all have plans to build mining operations on the moon. In fact, Russia has announced plans to have a permanent settlement on the moon by 2030 stating “we are going to the moon, forever.”

Current estimates say there is about 1,000,000 tonnes of HE-3 on the moon. There are 35,274 ounces in 1 tonne, and each ounce is worth $75,000… so that is $2,645,550,000 per tonne. So multiply that by a million. The price of HE-3 will come down once we can mine it safely and efficiently, but even even a steep reduction in price-per-ounce would leave lucrative margins.

And that's without considering the iron, gold, and other valuable stuff to be had on the moon. Taking into consideration HE-3, additional resources, and the potential value of more than 600,000 asteroids (and counting) many of which could contain more platinum than has ever been mined on Earth in history, and continuous operations on the moon to mine and refine space resources quickly becomes a priority.

Lunar base made by 3-D printers: http://bit.ly/1Dom6hr

Moving Forward

Technology is advancing so rapidly it’s difficult to imagine what the world will be like even 15 years from now. That said, what is currently being developed is pretty amazing. Semi-autonomous robots that swarm and work together to complete complex tasks like navigating to an asteroid, confirming it has the desired resources (i.e. water, platinum), bagging and tagging said asteroid, then hauling it back to the Moon where the minerals will be extracted, all the while harvesting the water along the way. That's amazing. 

To accomplish this the robots will be at least semi-intelligent, able to improvise and avoid obstacles, and probably learn. Laser communications, Artificial Intelligence, new propulsion systems, advanced solar energy collection and storage, more advanced avionics, data science and predictive algorithms, assembly and materials, not to mention the next duct tape or tang!

Naturally, robotic space miners will be limited to the abilities we provide them. The prospect of swarms of space-bots can be troubling though. By 2030 at least four nations could be launching fleets of robotic space miners: Japan, China, Russia, and the United States. While space is abundant, Earth is not. It is within reason to assume that conflicts might arise, but with any luck the abundance of resources in space will be enough to avoid them. Laws are already being written to address the issues around mining and ownership of lunar plots and asteroids.

2015 NRF Big Show Recap

The National Retail Federation’s 104th Annual Big Show was amazing. More than 35,000 executives and the like attended the world’s largest expo for retail. It was my first show, and it was truly awesome. I came back with several new perspectives and insights, as well as reaffirmed confidence in the trajectory of omnichannel retailing. For me, this has been an area of interest for several years so it is exciting to final attend in the Big Show, and see how quickly we are approaching the vision for the Future of Retail -- something many of us have been working for since 2009 or even earlier.

My high level takeaway is that omnichannel retailing is the evolving standard for retail. Retailers will implement a variety of tactics to further implement Omnichannel into their business and marketing operations, with In-Store Experiences central to most aspects of their Omnichannel strategy.

Omnichannel

Omnichannel is an evolving new standard for retail which prioritizes the customer, which requires business practices to adapt to a complex customer journey and marketing practices to adapt to a new “segment of one.”

Fulfillment: Omnichannel fulfillment is a major issue for retailers. This requires Real-Time Inventory accessible from all stores, in-other-words centralized; Distributed Order Management, or the ability to accept and fulfill orders (and update inventory in real-time) from across channels: online, mobile, in-store. This enables drop-shipping from local stores to reduce fulfillment time (online orders); recommendations for local stores where desired inventory is in-stock and can be purchased for pick-up (mobile); have an item shipped from the store, or have an item in a different size, color, etc shipped from a different store for pick-up at a local store or directly to the customer (in-store). Some good examples of omnichannel fulfillment included Netsuite’s “Customer Commerce”

RFID: Omnichannel fulfillment can be implemented without RFID, but achieve the full promise of Intelligent Fulfillment technology such as RFID will be necessary. Real-Time logistics and inventory data, as well as in-store tracking of products and even people (e.g. Intel presented an in-store tracking solution which integrated RFID into a shopping bag), as well as unique customer experiences which simply product discovery and savings.

Segment of One: Aggregating Individual Data combined with Granular Data in Stores, Distribution Centers, and up the Supply Chain will allow for segmentation on an individual basis. This will fulfill the promise of personalization where predictive models based on averages have failed. Technology innovations for real-time inventory and in-store tracking will help, but gaining customers to provide individual data requires stores to innovate around consumer experiences to create value. IBM’s description of Segments of One is comprehensive (if generic), but this goes beyond a profile. Stores and consumer software should provide relevant experiences by determining the context of the store visit: Is she in a rush? Is the dwelling? Is she lost or not sure what to buy?

Actionable Data: Collecting and aggregating data from inventory, in-store tracking, etc., provides information; individual data allows us to determine context which makes data actionable. To gain individual data consumers must perceive value proportional to the risk of providing the information. Value can be created via Savings, Efficiency, and Engagement. Some examples: 78% of customer report they would like to view signs with special promotions (savings), and 67% favor in-store guidance through digital signage (efficiency).

Integrated Data: Breaking down silos is critical to realizing a truly omnichannel store, and the burden rests heavy on software providers. Data must become unified from customer-end to supplier-end and made available to the retailer for real-time analytics. A variety of middleware options to help software vendors integrate data are emerging: e.g. Mad Mobile, Highjump.

Retail Devices

Retailers will purchase a variety of devices that align to their omnicommerce strategy.

Kiosks: A low-hanging fruit for retailers, new kiosks will be installed in 2015 for a variety of use-cases including: bill payment, interactive-tabletop, assisted selling, reporting and personnel management. Both Microsoft and Samsung demonstrated new kiosks, and made partnership announcements: Hardee’s and TGI Fridays will deploy self-order kiosks (Microsoft); Freshwater and ComQi will partner with Samsung to power assisted shopping.

Digital Signage: Arguably the second priority for retailers -- after actionable data -- retailers will quickly adopt digital signage as a low-hanging fruit to implement new in-store experiences as part of their omnichannel strategy. Two of the most impressive exhibits at NRF ‘15 were eBay’s Magic Mirror and Memomi by Memory Mirror (Palo Alto-based startup). Integrating digital signage with real-time data analytics, inventory and fulfillment, and presence technology will be an important part of most retailers omnichannel strategy, if not aspirational since truly integrated and actionable data is still a goal, not a reality, for most (all) retailers. Scala, Lexmark, Toshiba, Samsung, also had noteworthy digital signage exhibits. Lexmark is expected to rollout at Bestbuy, Office Depot, Safeway and 70+ more retailers.

Electronic Shelf Labels: A variant of digital signage, ESL could be a quietly emerging trend.  There were two varieties of ESL, one which uses LCD strips to display a variety of content and another which uses e-ink to dynamically display essential information typical to existing labels. The displays can be invoked by presence technology, facilitating dynamic pricing (for example) based on digital coupons stored on a mobile app.

Printer Integration: There were two solutions that addressed our printer integration problem. Ecrebo, a UK based company, which provides an SDK to interface with any printer. The other, Counect, was featured at Intel’s booth and solved the same problem using hardware called Counect Cube. This device operates as a Smart Gateway which utilizes any form of connectivity be-it Ethernet/Wi-Fi/3G/Bluetooth4.0 to interface with the printer and capture transaction data along with customer data.

mPOS: There were a host of mPOS devices from traditional POS players, though Vend and First Data’s Clover were also on site. Retailers will procure devices capable of a variety of payment methods in addition to EMV and Contactless Card. Microsoft Windows 8 POS on notebooks, desktops, tablets and phones were common as well as pairing with iPhone and Macbooks. 1D Laser Scanners, CCD Scanner, 1D/2D Image Scanners, NFC. Zebra Technologies exhibited a variety of Motorola mPOS (acquired), and Korean makers POS BANK and Bluebird had a strong presence.

In-Store Analytics

There is a wealth of information being acquired, and retailers are quickly implementing more strategies to gain better insights across multiple channels and locations. Understanding what is happening in-store is helping retailers improve marketing, assortments (merchandise), staffing, and fulfillment.

WiFi, Beacons, Cameras: Numerous companies exhibited In-Store Analytics solutions which leveraged WiFi, Bluetooth, or Cameras; the majority of them deploying devices integrating one or all of these. People Counting (check-in), Window Display Effectiveness, Customer Journey Tracking, etc. These solutions are packaged as engagement and staff management solutions, but typically were not integrated with inventory, personnel management, or CRM. Some standout companies were Nomi, Airwatch (VMWare), Euclid and RetailNext; however, there is a clear opportunity to provide truly end-to-end solutions. It is also important to note that several data science and analytics companies are forming close partnerships with device (wifi, beacon, camera) manufactures indicated consolidation is possible if not likely.

Retail Growth Strategies

Retailers are eager to grow amidst a global recovery, low cost of transportation of goods (aka cheap oil), and newly emerging markets (Southeast Asia, Africa). With intensified competition from both incumbent online retailers as well as brick-and-mortar retailers they are employing strategies to gain market share and differentiate themselves in ways that go beyond technology.

Diversification: Major retail brands are diversifying their brand with new products and services. For example, Birchbox launched a brick-and-mortar store where customers can take home product samples in addition to purchasing. Ralph Lauren opened a new flagship featuring Ralph’s Cafe, and Lululemon launched men’s line with an in-store grooming parlor.

Going Big: Several retailers presented on strategies for going global. The consistent was to do it, and do it big when you do. Launching 200 new locations as part of a regional expansion strategy was preferred to (for example) 10 new stores in the UK alone.

Storytelling: An extension of in-store experience, retailers will strive to differentiate amongst themselves and -- importantly -- against online retailers by providing a story to customers. The objective is to transform brick-and-mortar into a destination.

Examples of Future Stores

There were a few outstanding examples of technology implementations. Among them, standouts were Rebecca Minkoff, Intel, IBM-Apple, and Microsoft.

Rebecca Minkoff: Hands-down the most complete demonstration of “The Future of Retail” the store implemented useful technology to enhance the In-store shopping experience.

Intel’s Memomi (Memory Mirror): Was hands-down the coolest technology at NRF. ‘Nuf said.

IBM-Apple: IBM launched its MobileFirst for iOS retail enterprise apps Sales Assist and Pick & Pack. Each are powered by Watson, and are part of a new suit of enterprise apps which will include apps for banking, retail, insurance, financial services (insurance), telecom, government, and airlines.

“The Sales Assist app lets sales associates check customer profiles and make shopping suggestions based on purchase histories, as well as check in-store inventory, locate items in-store and arrange to ship out-of-stock items to the customer. The Pick & Pack app, meanwhile, combines in-store proximity-based tech (beacons) with back-end inventory insight to improve order fulfillment, and is 70% ready to go out-of-the-box.” - brandchannel

Microsoft End-To-End IoT: Azure HDInsight and Power BI for Office 365 makes it easy for retailers to track revenue, product searches, customer purchasing, social media activity, etc. Can easily access Power Map for Excel to represent responses to online ads, comparing by region or IP. Kinect for Windows is used for in-store tracking of product and customer movement where data is analyzed by Azure Stream Analytics. Azure Machine Learning can make predictions about individual consumers purchasing interests in coming days, weeks, months; and manage inventory in departments, stores, or region. - Microsoft Blog

Conclusion

Though the full vision of an omnichannel store is still aspirational, investments by retailers and vendors are bringing that vision closer to reality than ever before. This new paradigm in retail --a real-time, data driven, customer-focused, destination-creating, renaissance-- is evolving. I guess that means next year I can go back to New York? Hope so!

Jamming with Storybots!

Though last year my worked pivoted away from EdTech to stored-value (aka eGC) I’m still facinated by the way technology is reshaping the way we learn at all ages. Of course, since my son is almost 4 years old I’ve been mostly fascinated by EdTech for him. These days, it’s amazing what he finds on YouTube and our latest awesome discovery has been Storybots.

I’m So Hot

Most people my age (late Millennials in their early 30s) are familiar with JibJab, and if you’re not please go here. Back during the Bush Jr. years, JibJab made hilarious political parodies and became one of the funniest web services around. A couple of years ago they refocused that creative genius on teaching children, launching Storybots. At the time JibJab already had something like 20,000,000 registered users for their eCards service (which allow you to put your face in some pretty funny places… just check the link above).

When asked why, the two founders pointed to the fact their own kids don’t watch TV, they watch Netflix on the iPad. And I’m guessing Youtube. Storybots was born to be a compelling place for kids and parents to engage with each other on the new mobile medium. The suite of Storybot apps include “Starring You” books and videos, learning videos, abc videos, and activity sheets.  

Really compelling content YOU WANT to watch with your kids

While the other apps are fun, my son and I are raving about the learning videos. The content is so compelling we even play it in the car. Songs range from smooth raps about space which will remind you of old school rap, hilarious folk-rock about animals like the Chicken-bob or Tiger In the Jungle, and even songs that teach children how their body works.

The list of amazing content is pretty long, and getting longer.

If you have a young child and an iPad, you need to get into Storybots. Their learning apps are affordable and the videos on Youtube are free… check it out!